Pädagogische Hochschule Freiburg

Experience-based learning of environmental probabilities enhances Bayesian reasoning

von Jonathan Nelson
Name der Institution: Max Planck Institut für Bildungsforschung
Art des Beitrags: Vortrag
Zugeordnet der Sektion: Die Rolle der Repräsentationsformate stochastischer Information bei Risikoeinschätzungen und Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit

We conducted experiments with natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities.  We examined study participants' environmental knowledge following experience-based learning.  Most people are quantitatively well calibrated following learning by experience.  This contrasts with prior research on Bayesian reasoning in which even the most-helpful natural frequency count formats are not intuitive to most people.

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